Here we go again, another season is upon us, a resounding 5-0 win over QPR has fired a wave of optimism. Promotion, here we come. Or the play-offs? Or maybe some of you will simply learn to spell the names of our players (it’s not Brannigan, he’s not Jacob Murphy and Marty Taylor didn’t play for us). The Oxblogger Oxford United Survey 2023 has it all. Following last week’s focus on ratings, this week we shift to look to the future with your hopes, fears and predictions.

Where will we finish?

There is definitely a drop in expectation in terms of where you think we’ll finish next year. Last year, most people were expecting a play-off battle with even the most pessimistic of predictors thinking we’ll finish no lower than twelfth.

This time, the range is somewhere between sixth and seventeenth with one wag guessing we’ll be relegated. This survey is occasionally infiltrated by the odd Wycombe or Swindon fan browsing Twitter questioning their life choices, and that might be the case here. I just don’t have the energy to look.

None-the-less, despite a good summer we have tempered our expectations, and a play-off challenge – even if it was unsuccessful – would be considered a reasonable outcome.

In the FA Cup, the third round would be expected and anything beyond that would be considered a success, but the number of people thinking we’ll make the big draw has reduced for the third year in a row.

As in previous seasons, a journey to the second round of the League Cup is about the benchmark we expect, although the question was asked before we were drawn away to Bristol City, which is a pretty daunting prospect.

Prediction table

		Top (votes)	Bottom (votes)	Difference
1	Derby County	86	1	85
2	Barnsley	78	1	77
3	Bolton Wanderers	16		16
4	Peterborough	14		14
5	Blackpool	6		6
6	Portsmouth	6		6
7	Oxford United	3		3
8	Charlton Athletic			0
9	Lincoln City			0
10	Wycombe Wanderers	1	2	-1
11	Bristol Rovers		1	-1
12	Exeter City		2	-2
13	Shrewsbury Town		3	-3
14	Reading	9	15	-6
15	Burton Albion		10	-10
16	Leyton Orient		10	-10
17	Cheltenham Town		14	-14
18	Cambridge United		15	-15
19	Wigan Athletic		17	-17
20	Northampton Town		20	-20
21	Port Vale		20	-20
22	Fleetwood Town		21	-21
23	Carlisle United		23	-23
24	Stevenage		44	-44

It’s one thing to predict our finish in isolation, but another when you compare it to others in the division. The received wisdom seems to be that the biggest dogs (Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich) have moved on leaving a more even playing field. Now could be the time to capitalise.

That’s not quite how you see it, it’s true to say that you’re not expecting a lot from the teams relegated from the Championship, nor an unstoppable momentum from those promoted from League 2. 

However, there are two very obvious favourites – Derby and Barnsley with the play-offs being fought between Bolton, Reading, Blackpool and Portsmouth. On this basis we’ll finish seventh.

I’ve said before that it’s easy to mix up a club’s reputation and size with the ability of its team. Reading look like a sizeable club at this level, but their financial problems would suggest a fourth place finish is ambitious. Barnsley have also shown frailties over the summer. In the past you’ve predicted Wigan would go down in a year when they won the title.

At the bottom, Stevenage look set to go straight back down with Carlisle, while Fleetwood’s troubles look set to catch up with them. The final relegation spot will be taken by Port Vale, who looked like they were sliding towards the end of last season.

Wishes and predictions

Your wishes and predictions blur into one, showing that what we think will happen is not so much based on logic, but more likely on what we’d like to happen.

Stadium

Where last year Karl Robinson was, if not the only topic of your wishes and predictions, he was certainly a key feature. This season there is one dominant subject – the stadium. Naturally, you overwhelmingly hope that progress will be made. I know in the eyes of Friends of Stratfield Brake (and some local politicians), we are ‘only’ football fans and therefore not worthy of having an opinion, but it is what it is.

Whether it will happen is another question; it’s a bit of a split – illustrated by two consecutive respondents who predicted that the stadium will happen or not happen. I would say most people are optimistic of it going ahead, but not without a few hiccups along the way. One person predicts that this will be the result of local media stoking conflict by giving a platform to minority opinions.

At the other end of the spectrum, one of you thinks work will have started by the end of the season. A few people mentioned the possibility of either a ground share, but more likely an extension to our current arrangement at the Kasaam. It’s not a topic anyone is prepared to talk about, but it does seem quite a likely development given the speed at which these things work. While the stadium has always been a factor (millstone) in your thoughts, it does appear to be at the forefront like never before.

Management

There is a general feeling that the manager is no longer a live issue. In the past, you’ve been concerned about Karl Robinson going elsewhere or hoping that he’ll be sacked. This year everyone seems confident that Liam Manning will still be in situ come May. A few of you predict that he’ll pick up a manager of the month award or two, which will rob the Oxford Mail of one of it’s pre-prepared stories about Ramon Diaz winning it in 2004. One of you predicted that we’ll have a new goalkeeping coach – alright, calm down Mystic Meg.

There is less optimism about the board, one of you thinks that Tim Williams and Grant Ferguson will ‘continue to underwhelm’ with another predicting that Ferguson won’t last the season. The general mood does seem to be that things will be better on the pitch than off it, but only in more nebulous concepts like transparency. The big question is, if we perform on the pitch and the stadium progresses, will anyone care about transparency?

Players

There’s not much chat about players – a few people think that Cameron Brannagan will leave, but far fewer than in previous years. If anything, Brannagan is being caught by Tyler Goodrham in the sense of being the next one to leave with one thinking he’ll command a seven figure fee. One of you expects Sam Baldock to play for twenty minutes, while another thinks he’ll be ‘back on the grass’ – you aren’t specific about what kind of grass – he does seem to have a lot of time on his hands.

A couple of you are hopeful that Josh Murphy will show the form that deserted him last year while you expect Gatlin O’Donkor to either go on loan, score more than eight (or twenty) goals or be signed by a Premier League club. So a pivotal year, if a little unpredictable.

A few of you thinks that Matty Taylor will return to score against us – if he does let’s hope he whips his shirt off and knee slides in front of the Oxford fans rather than earnestly avoids a celebration. Someone thinks that we’ll sign two former Manning players while another is looking forward to Kemar Roofe signing on loan in January?

Other

As is tradition, one of you predicts a dog on the pitch but another thinks it will be a helicopter, though hopefully not at the same time. We will enjoy both a seventeen match unbeaten run, for balance, and a 7-0 win. But, if there’s one topic above all others, it’s the return of the Thames Valley derby. Most of you are predicting good things – conflating all your views, we’ll finish above Reading (and Wycombe) and take the double including a 5-0 win in a televised game. The big question is, will Karl Robinson be in the Reading dugout when we do? Someone thinks so.

As they say, let’s gooooo!