People who said that the draw against 10-men Burton was our best chance of getting our first away win of the season were wrong. It was the latest chance. Being 3-0 to Scunthorpe is probably the best, and we passed that one up as well.

In a division of tiny margins, we seem to have missed every opportunity to take points when they were available. Yesterday, Scunthorpe, Tuesday’s game against Barnsley, the defeat to Luton in the eighth minute of injury time, throwing away two leads to lose to Accrington. The list goes on. Each marginal mistake has a disproportionate effect – yesterday, we failed to snatch a goal and had chances which dribbled inches wide; but as a result we lost 2/3rds of the available points. That’s pretty punishing, all those marginal misses start to add up.

Looking at it, we’ve lost just four league games in our last 19. We’ve lost less games than Coventry in 11th. Nobody in the bottom nine have lost less games. Our goal difference is twice as good as Scunthorpe in 14th. There are seven teams who have scored less goals. Along with Sunderland; we’ve draw more games than anyone. But where they’ve lost two, we’ve lost twelve.

The accumulation of those marginal fails, and the fact we consistently fall on the wrong side of them, means we’re in the relegation zone. Promotion or the play-offs is always going to be an over-performance without more resources. Sunderland’s signing of Will Grigg for £4m shows just how big the gap can be, but a comfortable mid-table safety should be achievable for a club with our resources.

Which brings us to the dilemma; do we recognise we’re in trouble and start again with a new manager or simply deal with it with what we’ve got recognising the differences between success and failure are small. Turning draws into wins is where our difficulty is, we’re no longer being beaten soundly in the way we were at the start of the season. It’s wrong to write-off players like Jerome Sinclair just because he didn’t score yesterday, but some did. And his goalscoring isn’t necessarily the point; the point is, that we need energy up front so we can sustain ourselves as an attacking threat longer than if we have to rely on one player.

I don’t think disrupting the apple cart by getting rid of Karl Robinson is the answer, we aren’t tanking from a performance perspective and the issues that prevent us from making real progress run far beyond his office. Sacking Robinson will make us feel better for a bit because we’ve punished someone and relieved some frustration. As we’re sitting on a marginal line, I would rather we focussed on the 5% extra we need to pick up the points we need rather than risk losing 20% with the disruption.

2 thoughts on “The wrap: Burton Albion 0 Oxford United 0

  1. Really sound analysis – KR is part of a struggling system but he is not the only element that is underperforming, as you suggest. We leak silly and sometimes unlucky goals. We miss open scoring opportunities and I have lost count of the number of goal line clearances we have had against us. But we are not a hopeless, unstructured or disorganised team. In a league of marginal differences we are just the wrong side of the margin. 1% the other way and we stop the silly goals against, our shots are not deflected wide, the goal line clearances don’t happen and we do win. We just need that little bit more. My concern is that as we enter the run in the nerves will get tougher and those margins become even worse. Fingers crossed and some luck please.

    Liked by 1 person

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s