When would be the right time to let Wilder go?

Six defeats, not many managers survive such a streak. One of the arguments against the sacking of Chris Wilder is the lack of an alternative. I don’t fully agree with that point of view; there aren’t many football clubs flapping around unable to appoint a manager due to a lack of available candidates. However, many clubs have rushed to replace their manager under the delusion that they are in a buyers’ market. This is true, to a point, there is no shortage of managers out there. But, if you discount all the managers you don’t want and focus on those that you do, you realise that the roles of beggar and chooser reverses. Those managers you can rely on are either in post, in demand or don’t need a job; at least not one in League 2.

The problem with managers is that it’s not so much a skills shortage, but a skills gap. There are plenty out there who will do no more than an adequate job at best.

Ian Lenegan’s decision as to whether he lets Chris Wilder go or not, is therefore more difficult than many perhaps perceive. In Online-Forum-World life is simple; fire Wilder and get someone brilliant in to revitalise the club. A quick replacement for the short term is OK, but, if you’re looking to the long-term, how many managers are you happy to be in position in, say, 5-10 years time?

If Wilder were removed, then surely Lewis and Melville would quickly follow. It seems unlikely that the purpose of ridding the club of Wilder’s service is to give the coaches a chance. Unless, of course, the purpose of sacking Wilder is to save money, which it isn’t. The key is to improve performances. Much as he is a stalwart and a lovely bloke, anyone who witnessed Lewis’ brief managerial career at Oxford will remember that he’s good at committing his team to a ‘proper’ passing game without ever threatening to score.

From a coaching perspective the club is pretty lean, we don’t have a wealth of coaches with managerial experience ready to step in on a temporary basis. So who do you hand the reigns over to? Even in the short term? Michael Duberry? Or do you go Kassam-like into the beggers market hoping to strike gold.

And then, you’ve got to consider what you’ve got to offer a manager. A team, starved through injuries, demoralised by a long stretch of defeats, having recently lost a manager that, according to reliable sources, the players are behind. Is there going to be money available? Apparently not, according to Ian Lenegan, the club has max’ed out in terms of the wage bill. Are the injured players on their way back? Who knows? The club’s policy of not commenting on injuries is frustrating, but perhaps you can surmise, during a period of crisis, you’d expect the club to use any returns from injury as a good news story to buoy things up. There is no indication that the returns are imminent.

Wilder’s stock will be permanently damaged as a result of this run. People will have adjusted their gearing; a win will be considered a small step forward, a defeat 10 steps back. So, even if we did go 5-6 games unbeaten from Tuesday, all likelihood is that another defeat will see people calling for his head at the next defeat. Aside from promotion, it is difficult to imagine a situation where he will win over the crowd wholly. However, for the interests of the club in the long term, while expectations remain so low and Wilder continues to take a beating from some sections of the crowd, it may actually be better for Lenegan to hold things at this low ebb for a little while the situation improves and a suitable replacement is found.

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