Kick-off is upon us. Is it true that the infinite wisdom of the Oxford United community can somehow see into the future? The simple answer to that question is no. But, we give it a go anyway. Let’s have a look back to see how your predictions for last season worked out, and who you think will take the honours (and the wooden spoons) next season.
Where will we finish
Before getting onto your predictions for next season, let’s have a quick look at last season. Your top six were pretty good; Leeds were expected to win the title and they did, Burnley were promoted as Sheffield United and Coventry both made the play-offs. Norwich – who you thought would finish second – were the second worst performing team in the division compared to their expected finish, 11 places lower than expected. Only Luton were worse – 14 places lower (predicted 8th, finished 22nd).
| Team | Predicted position | End position | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Norwich | 2 | 13 | -11 |
| West Brom | 3 | 9 | -6 |
| Burnley | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Sheff Utd | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Coventry | 6 | 5 | 1 |
The Wayne Rooney effect did its magic at the other end – you expected Plymouth to finish bottom and, setting aside a Rooney-less late rally, that’s pretty much where they ended up. You also predicted QPR and Sheffield Wednesday to go down, but both performed better than expected. Cardiff, who you predicted to finish 16th, were rock bottom.
| Team | Predicted position | End position | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 22 | 15 | 7 |
| Sheff Wed | 23 | 12 | 11 |
| Plymouth | 24 | 23 | 1 |
The best performing teams relative to their expected finish were Blackburn (+14 places) and Millwall (+11). You expected us to finish 13th, which was always optimistic, we finished four places lower in 17th. Technically, an underperformance, but I think most people will appreciate the achievement of staying out of the bottom three.
Next season’s league table
For next season, predictably perhaps, you’re expecting a strong showing from Sheffield United with Leicester and Ipswich following them back into the Premier League. The top six or seven are not a major surprise although newly enriched Birmingham City are expected to finish in the top six despite only gaining promotion from League One last year.
| Team | Promotion (votes) | Relegation (votes) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 126 | 1 | 125 |
| Leicester | 83 | 1 | 82 |
| Ipswich | 65 | 2 | 63 |
| Southampton | 58 | 4 | 54 |
| Coventry | 36 | 2 | 34 |
| Birmingham | 30 | 1 | 29 |
| West Brom | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Middlesbrough | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Norwich | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| Millwall | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Bristol City | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Oxford | 1 | 7 | -6 |
| Watford | 0 | 6 | -6 |
| Swansea | 0 | 8 | -8 |
| Blackburn | 0 | 10 | -10 |
| Portsmouth | 0 | 11 | -11 |
| Wrexham | 2 | 18 | -16 |
| Derby | 1 | 32 | -31 |
| QPR | 0 | 31 | -31 |
| Stoke | 0 | 35 | -35 |
| Sheff Wed | 0 | 42 | -42 |
| Preston | 0 | 63 | -63 |
| Charlton | 0 | 80 | -80 |
| Hull | 0 | 81 | -81 |
Thereafter we move into the stagnant middle of the table, we come out 12th, which I’m sure we’d be delighted with. At the bottom, Hull are showing all the signs of being one of this season’s basket cases (John Lundstram’s signing aside), while you expect Charlton to find the division too hot to handle despite a plethora of new signings. Preston are probably suffering from a slow decay rather than an implosion, but are finally expected to succumb to relegation after a decade in the second tier. Sheffield Wednesday, who are also in some trouble off the field – much of which came to light after the survey was completed – are expected to struggle.
FA Cup
Cup competitions are beginning to slip into the background. Last year, you expected us to reach the 4th Round, but our defeat to Exeter, albeit with a weakened side, saw us bow out a round earlier. An under-performance then, but is anyone that bothered anymore?
Next season is not much different, 53% of you expect us to reach the Fourth Round with 33% expecting us to slip out in the 3rd. 11% expect a fifth round with 2% reaching the sixth. But, until the cups offer a break from turgid mid-table nothingness, none of this seems to matter.
League Cup
I had to look up how we did in the League Cup last season. Apparently, we beat Peterborough before failing to Coventry 1-0 in the second round. You predicted that we’d make the 3rd Round, so that was another under-performance.
Next season is even less optimistic, 49% of you expect us to limp through to the second round before going out. 32% expect to get a stage further.
Predictions
Your predictions for last season fell into three categories; the stadium would be started (it wasn’t), we would stay up (we did) and there would be transfer speculation about players like Tyler Goodrham and Cameron Brannagan (there wasn’t).
This year’s predictions have a similar feel, though they’re a little sharper in focus this time around. The issue of this and most ages is planning permission for the new stadium. There seems to be an air of optimism that progress will be made.
In less good news, Tyler Goodrham is expected to be sold. He’s certainly tipped to be one of our more bankable assets, but I’m not so sure. This is an important season for Goodrham, his form tailed off last year so if he is going to make a move he’s going to need to show that he can last the distance at this level. And finally, the most binary prediction is that we’ll be awarded a penalty. Paranoid? Us?
Wish
Your wishes and predictions circled around the same subjects both last season and this. We’d hoped for planning permission on the stadium, but this still (for now) remains unfulfilled. But, while we wait, our modest wish was to stay in the Championship, a wish that was granted. Beyond this, we hoped that whatever the season threw at us, we’d remain unified as a club. Which, judging by our reactions at the end of the season, we managed to do despite a late struggle and the unceremonious sacking of Des Buckingham.
Guess what? Your overwhelming wish for this season is positive progress on the stadium. This is the immovable object which will dominate our thoughts until the day we walk through the gates of the new place for the first game of the season.
Generally, we would like a more comfortable Championship season; mid-table would be nice. Nobody is getting over-excited by what we might achieve, but consolidation would be considered a success.
But, there’s a caveat, you final wish is that we secure safety in a style more akin to what we believe Oxford United to be. There was a general acceptance last year that we had to get back to basics to get over the line, but it was a temporary measure. I’m not sure we’ll tolerate that kind of approach for the whole of next season.
There were a few other honourable mentions in terms of wishes for next season – penalty awards are a growing factor, striker signings and better club communication came up more than once. One of you is fawning for the return of Sweet Formation outside the ground.
The Oxblogger Newsletter
This article was first published in the Oxblogger Newsletter, a bi-monthly Oxford United fanzine by the fans for the fans. See the whole issue here and subscribe to get each issue straight to your in-box each.
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