As the season draws to a close, there’s an increasing sense of helplessness. It’s not unique to a relegation battle, it’s also true when you’re chasing promotion or play-off places. I guess there’s a point where the possible outcomes of a season, although various, become increasingly conceivable. We can be pretty certain, for example, that the bottom eight clubs in the division are probably the teams most likely to go down, what we can’t be sure is who will the unlucky four.

So, to address this helplessness, many of us start doing calculations; making predictions of outcomes, creating endless what-if scenarios. But it’s all very imprecise, there’s a question of bias, you know infinitely more about your team than any others, Forest Green probably look universally hopeless on paper, whereas we believe (I think) that Oxford just need a few players turning their form around to us safe. If you support Forest Green, it might be the other way around.

Plus, of course, we all have a predilection – optimists, pessimists, fantasists, realists. So, what would happen if we drew on the wisdom of crowds to predict the outcome of the season? Would that temper some of the excesses? Would we get a more rational, objective assessment of how this season will turn out?

Well, that’s what I’ve tried to do – I asked fans to predict the outcomes of all remaining games involving the bottom eight clubs, collectively we’ve made a big prediction as to where we’ll be in May. So…

Do we survive?

Let’s get the big one out of the way first, do we survive? Well, the answer is yes, comfortably. Form-wise, we’re probably the worst professional club in the Football League at the moment, but according to predictions, we’ll become the form team among the bottom eight. According to you, we’ll pick up twelve points in the next nine games to finish 17th or 18th (depending on goal difference). 

The final table will be: 

Pos.	Team	Points
17	Cheltenham Town	49
18	Oxford United	49
19	MK Dons	45
20	Burton Albion	43
21	Accrington Stanley	40
22	Morecambe	35
23	Cambridge United	35
24	Forest Green Rovers	26

When will we be safe?

Even allowing for a margin of error, according to this, 41 points will see us safe, so we need just four more points, which you think will be achieved by 25th April and our home game against Cheltenham.

But, beware, things will get worse before they get better. You’ve predicted that our already long run of poor form will continue with two more defeats against Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday. Then we’ll hit some form with three draws against Port Vale, Bolton and Portsmouth, before stumbling at Barnsley and then having a glorious three win run against Cheltenham, Forest Green and Accrington Stanley to conclude the season.

The run in looks like this…

Peterborough (A)	L
Sheffield Wednesday (H)	L
Port Vale (A)	D
Bolton (H)	D
Portsmouth (H)	D
Barnsley (A)	L
Cheltenham (H)	W
Forest Green (A)	W
Accrington Stanley (H)	W

So, it’s a rollercoaster?

A bit, we could drop into the relegation zone by 10th April following the draw against Port Vale, depending on goal difference. That’s not likely given that we have a much better goal difference than all the teams around us. I’ll be honest, this doesn’t fill me with a lot of joy as we seem to move around a lot while others flat-line. It’s almost as if fans don’t really know anything about the other teams and expect them all to uniformly continue their form as if automatons.

Should we be cautious about these predictions?

Oh yes, despite everything that’s happened this season, we’re supremely confident in our upcoming form. Are we anticipating a draw against Bolton because we’ve been OK against them in recent seasons? Are the draws against Port Vale and Portsmouth coloured by the fact it’ll get one over Jack Stevens, Matt Taylor and John Mousinho?

Anyone who saw Forest Green’s win against Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday will know that the league is still unpredictable. Forest Green’s survival still seems unlikely, but you’ve predicted that they’ll lose the next eight, including against us, while Morecambe will take just one point in the rest of the season. It doesn’t seem logical that nobody will spring a surprise. Unless you’re all very astute and it’s actually us who buck the form trend.

That said, in most results the individual outcomes were unequivocal. Collectively, we’re of one mind about how the season will pan out.

There’s undoubtedly still bias in the predictions, but also plenty of space to get things wrong and still survive. What is hard to predict is that if we do lose the next two, then what frame of mind will we be in going into the final seven games? And, if we’re reliant on taking near-maximum points at the end of the season, will the pressure become too great?

Only time will tell, of course, so I’ll try to keep up with results and see just how accurate the wisdom of crowds really is. For reference, this is what you think the run in will look like:

29th March 2023

Cheltenham Town v Sheffield Wednesday – Away win (96.8% of the votes)

1st April 2023

Barnsley v Morecambe – Home win – (96.8% of the votes)

Cheltenham Town v Burton Albion – Draw – (54.8% of the votes)

Forest Green v Portsmouth – Away win – (79.3% of the votes)

Peterborough v Oxford United – Home win – (69.8% of the votes)

Port Vale v Cambridge United – Home win – (50.5% of the votes)

Wycombe Wanderers v MK Dons – Home win – (65.2% of the votes)

7th April 2023

Accrington Stanley v Port Vale – Draw – (49.5% of the votes)

Burton Albion v Barnsley – Away win – (81.3% of the votes)

Cambridge United v Fleetwood – Draw – (43% of the votes)

Forest Green v Derby County – Away win – (93.5% of the votes)

Lincoln City v Cheltenham Town – Draw – (46.4% of the votes)

MK Dons v Portsmouth – Away win – (49.5% of the votes)

Morecambe v Plymouth Argyle – Away win – (92.4% of the votes)

Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday – Away win – (65.6% of the votes)

10th April 2023

Bolton Wanderers v Cambridge United – Home win – (93.5% of the votes)

Charlton Athletic v Burton Albion – Home win – (62% of the votes)

Cheltenham Town v Ipswich Town – Away win – (84.8% of the votes)

Derby County v MK Dons – Home win – (92.3% of the votes)

Port Vale v Oxford United – Away win – (57.6% of the votes)

Portsmouth v Morecambe – Home win – (93.4% of the votes)

Sheffield Wednesday v Accrington Stanley – Home win – (97.8% of the votes)

Wycombe Wanderers v Forest Green – Home win – (93.5% of the votes)

15th April 2023

Cambridge United v Peterborough – Away win – (57.6% of the votes)

Accrington Stanley v Fleetwood – Draw – (41.8% of the votes)

Burton Albion v Sheffield Wednesday – Away win – (87.9% of the votes)

Forest Green v Barnsley – Away win – (90.1% of the votes)

MK Dons v Cheltenham Town – Home win – (53.3% of the votes)

Morecambe v Wycombe Wanderers – Away win – (55.4% of the votes)

Oxford United v Bolton Wanderers – Draw – (50.5% of the votes)

18th April 2023

Accrington Stanley v Peterborough United – Away win – (69.2% of the votes)

Burton Albion v Bolton Wanderers – Away win – (62.6% of the votes)

Cambridge United v Wycombe Wanderers – Away win – (49.5% of the votes)

Forest Green Rovers v Fleetwood Town – Away win – (42.9% of the votes)

MK Dons v Charlton Athletic – Draw – (46% of the votes)

Oxford United v Portsmouth – Draw – (53.3% of the votes)

22nd April 2023

Barnsley v Oxford United – Home win – (86.6% of the votes)

Charlton Athletic v Morecambe – Home win – (81.3% of the votes)

Cheltenham Town v Forest Green Rovers – Home win – (72.2% of the votes)

Derby County v Burton Albion – Home win – (87.6% of the votes)

Plymouth Argyle v Cambridge United – Home win – (96.7% of the votes)

Portsmouth v Accrington Stanley – Home win (93.4% of the votes)

25th April 2023

Bolton Wanderers v Accrington Stanley – Home win – (93.4% of the votes)

Lincoln City v Burton Albion – Home win – (49.5% of the votes)

Oxford United v Cheltenham Town – Home win – (81.3% of the votes)

29th April 2023

Accrington Stanley v Cambridge United – Draw – (48.4% of the votes)

Forest Green Rovers v Oxford United – Away win – (85.7% of the votes)

MK Dons v Barnsley – Away win – (74.2% of the votes)

Morecambe v Lincoln City – Draw – (55.6% of the votes)

Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion – Home win – (96.7% of the votes)

Wycombe Wanderers v Cheltenham Town – Home win – (78% of the votes)

3rd May 2023

Burton Albion v Cambridge United – Draw – (53.8% of the votes)

7th May 2023

Burton Albion v MK Dons – Draw – (60.4% of the votes)

Cambridge United v Forest Green Rovers – Home win – (67% of the votes)

Cheltenham Town v Charlton Athletic – Draw – (40.7% of the votes)

Exeter City v Morecambe – Home win – (80% of the votes)

Oxford United v Accrington Stanley – Home win – (82.4% of the votes)